Who Are the Top Contenders for the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds?

As I look back at the 2018 NBA season, one question dominated basketball conversations from October through April: who would claim the Rookie of the Year honors? Having followed NBA basketball for over fifteen years, I've developed a keen eye for spotting exceptional young talent, and this particular rookie class had me genuinely excited from opening night. The race unfolded with several compelling narratives, but three names consistently rose to the top of the conversation, creating one of the most memorable rookie battles in recent history.

The conversation, quite frankly, began and ended with Ben Simmons for many analysts, myself included. Despite being drafted in 2016, a foot injury sidelined him for his entire would-be rookie season, making him eligible for the 2018 award. From my perspective, this created a unique and slightly controversial dynamic. Was it fair to consider a player who had spent a full year immersed in an NBA system, even if he wasn't playing, a true rookie? The purist in me had some reservations, but the basketball fan couldn't deny his transcendent impact. Simmons wasn't just playing; he was orchestrating the Philadelphia 76ers' offense with a poise I'd rarely seen from a first-year player. His stat line was staggering—averaging 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. Those aren't just rookie numbers; those are All-Star numbers. I remember watching a game in January where he recorded a triple-double, and it felt effortless, like he was playing chess while everyone else was playing checkers. His combination of size, vision, and basketball IQ made him the frontrunner in my book for the majority of the season.

However, dismissing Donovan Mitchell would have been a massive mistake. While Simmons was the polished prodigy, Mitchell was the explosive scoring sensation nobody saw coming. I'll admit, I was among those who underestimated his immediate impact. Selected 13th overall by the Denver Nuggets and then traded to the Utah Jazz, he exploded onto the scene with a scoring prowess that immediately reminded me of a young Dwyane Wade. He wasn't just scoring; he was carrying the offensive load for a Jazz team that surged in the second half of the season. Mitchell averaged 20.5 points per game, leading all rookies and becoming the first rookie since Blake Griffin to lead his team in scoring for a playoff squad. There was a specific game against the New Orleans Pelicans where he dropped 41 points, and I remember thinking, "This isn't a fluke. This kid is for real." His ability to create his own shot, combined with a fearless mentality in clutch moments, made him the people's champion and created a legitimate debate that split the basketball community. The narrative was irresistible: the polished, pass-first point guard versus the explosive, score-first shooting guard.

While Simmons and Mitchell commanded most of the spotlight, we can't forget about Jayson Tatum. Drafted third overall by the Boston Celtics, Tatum found himself in a perfect situation—a winning culture with established veterans, but also with a sudden, massive opportunity following Gordon Hayward's devastating opening-night injury. What impressed me most about Tatum wasn't just his polished offensive game, which was far more NBA-ready than I anticipated, but his efficiency. He shot a remarkable 43.4% from three-point range as a rookie, a figure that is elite for any player, let alone a 19-year-old. He didn't have the gaudy assist numbers of Simmons or the volume scoring of Mitchell, but he was a crucial two-way player for a Celtics team that came within one game of the NBA Finals. His performance in the playoffs, including some iconic dunks over LeBron James, solidified his status as a future star. In any other year, without two historically great rookie campaigns ahead of him, Tatum would have been a shoo-in for the award.

Now, you might be looking at the reference data provided—the Magnolia box score with players like Lucero (17), Gomez de Liaño (14), and Lastimosa (14)—and wondering about the connection. Let me draw that parallel. Just as in that basketball game, where the scoring was distributed but a few key players like Lucero stood out with 17 points, the 2018 NBA rookie class had many contributors, but the scoring title for this particular "game," the Rookie of the Year race, was always going to come down to the top two or three contenders. The other rookies, like Kyle Kuzma, Lauri Markkanen, and Dennis Smith Jr., all had fantastic seasons—they were the Gomez de Liaños and Lastimosas of the league, putting up solid numbers of 14 points. But the 17-point performance, the clear standout, was the battle between Simmons and Mitchell. It was a debate that extended beyond stats and into philosophy. Did you value the all-around, game-controlling brilliance of Simmons, or the explosive, carry-the-team scoring of Mitchell? For me, while Mitchell's rise was the story of the year, Simmons' consistent, triple-double threat and his role as the primary engine for a 52-win team gave him the slightest of edges. In the end, the voters agreed, awarding the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year to Ben Simmons. It was a decision I supported, though I'll always have a soft spot for the sheer excitement Donovan Mitchell brought to the court every single night. That race, for me, is a reminder that individual awards are wonderful, but witnessing the birth of multiple superstars in a single season is the real prize for any basketball fan.