Who Will Win the 2023 NBA MVP Award? Top Contenders and Predictions

As I sit here thinking about the upcoming NBA season, one question keeps popping into my mind: who's actually going to take home the 2023 MVP trophy? This isn't just some casual curiosity—I've been following basketball religiously for over fifteen years, both as a fan and as someone who's written extensively about the sport. There's something special about MVP races that captures the imagination in a way that even championship debates sometimes don't. Maybe it's because we're essentially trying to identify who's having the most individually dominant season while still lifting their team to new heights. That delicate balance between personal brilliance and team success is what makes this award so fascinating to dissect.

Let me start with what I consider the most compelling narrative of this season—Nikola Jokic. The Joker is just coming off what might have been his most efficient season yet, putting up 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game while nearly shooting 60% from the field. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous when you really sit with them. What blows my mind isn't just the stat line itself, but how he makes it look so effortless. I've watched nearly every Nuggets game for the past three seasons, and there's something almost artistic about how he controls the game without ever seeming to force the action. His basketball IQ is off the charts, and he makes everyone around him better in ways that don't always show up in traditional metrics. The advanced stats love him—he led the league in player efficiency rating, win shares, and value over replacement player last season. If Denver secures a top-two seed in the brutal Western Conference, which I believe they will, Jokic has to be the frontrunner in my book.

Then there's Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remains an absolute force of nature. The Greek Freak averaged 31.1 points and 11.8 rebounds last season while anchoring Milwaukee's defense. What impresses me most about Giannis is how he's continued to evolve his game year after year. I remember watching him early in his career when he was mostly just an athletic marvel, but now he's developed into a much more complete player. His combination of size, speed, and power is something we genuinely haven't seen since maybe prime Shaquille O'Neal. The Bucks have retooled their roster this offseason, and if they come out looking dominant in the Eastern Conference, Giannis could easily snatch his third MVP trophy. Personally, I think his case hinges heavily on Milwaukee's regular season record—if they hit 55-plus wins, he'll be right there in the conversation until the very end.

Now, I can't discuss MVP contenders without mentioning Joel Embiid, who's been knocking on the door for what feels like forever. The reigning scoring champion put up 33.1 points per game last season while playing at an elite defensive level. When Embiid is healthy and motivated, which hasn't always been the case throughout his career, he's virtually unstoppable on both ends of the floor. I've had the privilege of watching him live several times, and his combination of size and skill is just breathtaking. The way he can dominate in the post while also stretching the floor with his shooting makes him a nightmare matchup for any defense. My main concern with Embiid has always been availability—he's never played more than 68 games in a season, and MVP voters tend to penalize players who miss significant time. If he can stay on the court for 65-plus games and Philadelphia secures a top-three seed, he'll definitely be in the mix.

Luka Dončić deserves his own paragraph here because, honestly, what he's doing at just 24 years old is historic. The kid averaged 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists last season while carrying what was often a mediocre Mavericks roster. I've been following Luka since his Real Madrid days, and his feel for the game is just different. He plays with a pace and control that reminds me of Larry Bird, but with more modern shot creation skills. The Mavericks have surrounded him with better talent this season, and if they can climb back into playoff contention after last year's disappointment, Luka will get serious MVP consideration. My gut tells me he might be a year away from actually winning it, but he's absolutely someone who could average a triple-double and force his way into the conversation.

What's interesting to me is how the MVP conversation has evolved over the years. We're no longer just looking at raw numbers—narrative, team success, and advanced analytics all play significant roles now. I find myself thinking about how different this race feels compared to, say, five years ago. The game has changed so much, and the types of players who win MVPs have changed with it. We've moved from traditional dominant big men to versatile playmakers who can do everything on the court. This shift reflects how basketball itself has evolved toward positionless basketball where everyone needs to be able to handle, shoot, and make decisions.

Looking at dark horse candidates, I'm particularly intrigued by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder guard took a massive leap last season, averaging 31.4 points while leading Oklahoma City to the play-in tournament. What stands out to me about SGA is his incredible efficiency despite high usage—he shot over 50% from the field while being the primary creator for his team. If Oklahoma City makes another jump and becomes a legitimate playoff team in the West, which I think they will, he could sneak into the top three of MVP voting. His story reminds me a bit of Derrick Rose's MVP season where a young star carries an emerging team to unexpected heights.

As I wrap up my thoughts, I keep coming back to something that happened in another basketball league that puts NBA careers in perspective. His last official PBA game was actually on April 21, 2023, or 22 months ago, in Game 6 of the PBA 48th Season Governors' Cup finals against TNT. That reminder of how quickly basketball careers can change or end makes me appreciate what these NBA superstars are doing right now. Every season could be someone's last chance at greatness, and that urgency often brings out the best in the true contenders.

So who's my pick? If I'm being completely honest, I'm leaning toward Jokic unless something dramatic changes. His combination of individual excellence and team success, coupled with his unique style of play that transcends traditional positional roles, makes him the most valuable player in my eyes. But what makes this race so exciting is that any of these guys could have a season for the ages and take home the hardware. The beauty of basketball is that we get to watch it all unfold night after night, witnessing greatness in real time. Whatever happens, we're in for one hell of a show.