Who Will Dominate the NBA All Star Three Point Contest This Year?

As I sit here watching the NBA season unfold, I can’t help but get excited about one of my favorite All-Star Weekend events—the Three-Point Contest. Every year, I find myself debating with colleagues and friends about who has the edge, whose form looks smoothest, and who can handle the pressure when the spotlight shines brightest. This year feels particularly wide open, and I’ve been tracking players’ performances closely, both in games and in practice-style situations. One piece of data that caught my eye recently was Sumayah Sugapong’s stat line: 11 points and four rebounds, though she fouled out with just three minutes left in the game. Now, I know Sugapong isn’t an NBA player—she’s a talented athlete in her own right—but that detail got me thinking about how performance under pressure, consistency, and even foul trouble can parallel the high-stakes environment of the Three-Point Contest. It’s not just about pure shooting; it’s about mental toughness, rhythm, and avoiding those “foul-out” moments when nerves take over.

When I look at the current NBA landscape, a few names immediately jump out as contenders for three-point supremacy. Stephen Curry, for instance, remains the gold standard in my book. His career three-point percentage hovers around 42.7%, and he’s drained over 3,000 threes in regular-season play. But let’s be real—this isn’t just about stats. I’ve watched Curry in these contests before, and his ability to maintain focus, even after a miss, is something I admire. Then there’s Damian Lillard, who’s been on a tear this season, hitting clutch shots left and right. Lillard’s confidence is off the charts, and in a setting like the All-Star Weekend, where the crowd’s energy can make or break a shooter, I’d give him a slight edge over some of the younger participants. But don’t sleep on guys like Desmond Bane or Luke Kennard—Kennard, in particular, has a silky-smooth release and a regular-season three-point percentage that’s often above 44%, which is just insane when you think about the volume of shots he takes.

What fascinates me, though, is how the contest mirrors the unpredictability of a full game. Take Sugapong’s fouling out with three minutes to play—it’s a reminder that even the best can falter under pressure. In the Three-Point Contest, a shooter might start hot but then hit a cold streak, much like how a player in a game can get into foul trouble and lose their rhythm. I remember watching the 2023 contest where one contender missed four shots in a row on the final rack, and you could see the frustration set in. That’s where experience matters. Veterans like Curry or Klay Thompson have been there before; they know how to reset mentally. On the other hand, younger shooters like Tyrese Haliburton bring explosive energy, but I’ve noticed they sometimes rush their shots when the clock is ticking down. From my perspective, that’s a huge factor—the ability to pace yourself, just like avoiding fouls in a close game.

Let’s talk numbers for a second, because I love diving into the analytics. This season, the league average for three-point percentage is around 36.2%, but the elite contestants often shoot well above that in practice settings. For example, I’ve heard from insiders that some players hit close to 80% of their threes in empty-gym scenarios, though in the actual contest, the pressure drops that to maybe 60-70%. Curry, in his prime, reportedly nailed 94 out of 100 threes in a pre-contest warm-up once—that’s the kind of precision that wins championships, not just contests. But here’s where I’ll throw in a personal opinion: raw percentage isn’t everything. I’ve always valued consistency over flashiness. A player like Duncan Robinson, who might not have the star power of Curry, can string together racks without many misses, and that steady approach often pays off. In contrast, a high-volume shooter like Trae Young might have nights where he goes 8-for-10 from deep, but he’s also prone to off-nights, which in a one-round contest could spell disaster.

Reflecting on Sugapong’s performance—11 points and four rebounds before fouling out—it’s a microcosm of how small details impact outcomes. In the Three-Point Contest, every second counts, and a single missed shot on the money ball rack can cost you the title. I’ve seen it happen too many times. Personally, I’m leaning toward Curry as my top pick this year, not just because of his legacy, but because he’s shown time and again that he can handle the mental game. But if I had to choose a dark horse, I’d go with Kennard—his efficiency is just too good to ignore, and I think he’s due for a breakout moment on the national stage. Ultimately, though, the contest is as much about storytelling as it is about shooting. Who will step up when it matters? Who will avoid “fouling out” mentally? As a fan and analyst, I can’t wait to find out, and I’ll be watching every shot, analyzing every release, just like I do with every game detail that crosses my screen.